Agricultural fluctuations and global economic conditions

William Ginn ()
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William Ginn: Labcorp, Sr. Economist Data Scientist, Artificial Intelligence

Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2024, vol. 160, issue 3, No 10, 1037-1056

Abstract: Abstract This research examines the global implications of agricultural production and price fluctuations via Global Bayesian Vector Autoregression (GBVAR) model. We develop a novel Paasche agriculture price index, based on the relative time-varying contribution of four dominant food commodities shifting contributions of major food commodities (rice, maize, soybeans, wheat), pivotal for global sustenance. The analysis reveals that while agricultural production shocks are important, they exert a comparatively lesser impact than agriculture price shocks. Higher agriculture inflation can be destabilizing via lower output and higher aggregate inflation.

Keywords: Food production and commodity prices; Inflation; GBVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E60 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10290-023-00522-4

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