Weshalb konjunkturprognostiker regelmäßig den wetterbericht studieren sollten

Roland Döhrn

Wirtschaftsdienst, 2014, vol. 94, issue 7, 487-491

Abstract: Certainly, economic activity is infl uenced by weather conditions. In short term economic forecast, normal weather fl uctuations over the year are covered by using seasonally adjusted fi gures. However, they are calculated by time series methods and do not take into account specifi c weather conditions such as unusually mild or cold winters. In particular in the fi rst quarter of a year, it is often diffi cult to identify whether short term shifts in economic activity are due to cyclical reasons ore merely refl ect specifi c weather conditions. The paper shows that this uncertainty leads to biased forecast. After mild winters forecasts of GDP and investment in construction tend to be over optimistic whereas they are too pessimistic after atypically cold winters. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Keywords: C53; E37; E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s10273-014-1701-y

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