An equilibrium level of credits in the economy of Kazakhstan

Shalkar Baikulakov

Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 2019, vol. 9, issue 1, 2

Abstract: The article was conducted to assess equilibrium level of credit-to-GDP ratio. The research is based on the fundamental macroeconomic indicators and international comparisons of the similar sized economies. In addition, the paper presents a set of econometric methods for estimating the influence of supply and demand factors on the dynamics of credit aggregates. Namely, the Error Correction Model and Hodrick-Prescott filter were applied, since they are suitable tools to assess long-term relationships between credit demand and supply as well as they can adequately assess the level of credit in the economy. In conclusion, it appears that the current level of this indicator in Kazakhstan is likely to be close to equilibrium or slightly lower it.  JEL classification numbers: E51, C23, G01Keywords: Credit, Equilibrium level, Error correction model, Hodrick Prescot filter.

Date: 2019
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