Changes in real income of households in the Czech Republic due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Marek Vochozka (), Marek Vochozka (), Stanislav Škapa () and Yelyzaveta Apanovych ()
Additional contact information
Marek Vochozka: DTI University, Slovakia
Marek Vochozka: Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Czech Republic
Stanislav Škapa: Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic
Yelyzaveta Apanovych: Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Czech Republic

Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 2023, vol. 11, issue 2, 37-53

Abstract: The objective of the paper was to assess the impact of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation on real household income in the Czech Republic. The research methods used in the study include content analysis, seasonal modification of SARIMA, and discounting method, specifically NPV. Data were collected from publicly available sources of the Czech Statistical Office. Based on a content analysis of the macroeconomic indicators under study, inflation and gross monthly household income were selected to examine further development of real household income in the Czech Republic. Based on historical data, the SARIMA model made statistically relevant forecasts of the selected variables for the "pre-war" year 2022. Comparing real and forecast data, it was confirmed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine (from 24th February 2022 onwards) has shown how vulnerable the European financial system is to external shocks, which can be observed in significant inflationary changes. The ability of the SARIMA model to handle a larger range of data and accurately determined seasonality was demonstrated in forecasting the development of real household income. The identified economic consequences of deviations of the real and forecast figures in the "pre-war" period showed new realities in turbulent economic conditions. In order to further expand the research, combining the applied method with other analytical tools can be recommended. Moreover, it is advisable to include new relevant variables in the model. This would allow understanding better and forecasting the development of real household income in the context of current economic events.

Keywords: prediction; inflation; household income; invasion; Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E61 M21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://jssidoi.org/jesi/uploads/articles/42/Vocho ... asion_of_Ukraine.pdf (application/pdf)
https://jssidoi.org/jesi/article/1125 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ssi:jouesi:v:11:y:2023:i:2:p:37-53

DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2023.11.2(3)

Access Statistics for this article

Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues is currently edited by Manuela Tvaronaviciene

More articles in Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues from VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Manuela Tvaronaviciene ().