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Tax revenues estimation and forecast for state tax audit

Madina Serikova (), Lyazzat Sembiyeva (), Kuralay Balginova, Gulzhan Alina (), Aliya Shakharova () and Anar Kurmanalina ()
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Madina Serikova: L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan
Lyazzat Sembiyeva: L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan
Kuralay Balginova: Baishev University, Kazakhstan
Gulzhan Alina: Kazakh University of Economy, Finance and International Trade, Kazakhstan
Aliya Shakharova: L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan
Anar Kurmanalina: Karaganda Economic University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Kazakhstan

Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 2020, vol. 7, issue 3, 2419-2435

Abstract: The forecast model analysis of dependence of tax revenues of the state budget on macroeconomic indicators is presented. For example, the hypothesis of the impact of total retail trade on domestic taxes on goods, works and services through correlation and regression analysis is studied. Moreover, the influence of nominal income per capita, the volume of industrial products (goods and services), and investments in fixed capital on income tax was assessed. In the course of the study, the indicator of crude oil and natural gas production was selected and its impact on tax revenues from international trade and foreign operations of the country was analyzed. Thus, the importance of methods of forecasting tax revenues in the context of state tax audit and budget planning is substantiated.

Keywords: tax; state budget; tax audit; tax revenues; income tax; modeling; planning; forecasting; macroeconomic indicators; scenario method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H25 H30 H32 O23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2020.7.3(64)

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