Estimating cointegrating vectors using near unit root variables

Aaron Smallwood and Stefan Norrbin

Applied Economics Letters, 2004, vol. 11, issue 12, 781-784

Abstract: This paper argues that the predominant method of estimating equilibrium relationships in macroeconometric models, namely the VECM system of Johansen, is severely flawed if the underlying variables are distributed as near unit root processes. Researchers may apply cointegration techniques to these processes, as the power of rejecting near unit roots using standard unit root tests is extremely low. Using Monte Carlo analysis, problematic behaviour of cointegration analysis is found in detecting the true underlying form of the connection between the near unit root processes. Furthermore the connecting vector is imprecisely estimated, resulting in problematic inference for error correction models.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000245520

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