Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: was the crisis predictable?

Ivan Paya () and Kent Matthews

Applied Economics Letters, 2004, vol. 11, issue 13, 797-801

Abstract: This paper has three objectives. First, it examines the link between the term spread (difference between long-term and short-term rate of interest) and GDP growth in the Korean economy for the period 1980-1999. Second, it tests for the independent information content of the term spread by including current and expected monetary policy indicators. Third, it explores the usefulness of the spread as a leading indicator of recessions and poses the question, was the crisis of 1997-1998 predictable?

Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article& ... 40C6AD35DC6213A474B5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:13:p:797-801

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20

DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000254908

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics Letters is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics Letters from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().