Should we really care about building business cycle coincident indexes!

Alain Hecq

Applied Economics Letters, 2005, vol. 12, issue 3, 141-144

Abstract: Quite often, the goal of the game when developing new coincident indexes of the economic activity is the comparison with NBER turning points. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this note illustrates that for the USA, any random linear combination of the four coincident variables would do the job as good as other more complicated methods.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000338608

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