Dairy supply response under stochastic trend and seasonality

Murali Adhikari, Krishna Paudel, Jack Houstan and James Bukenya

Applied Economics Letters, 2007, vol. 14, issue 12, 887-891

Abstract: Developing a dairy supply model assuming deterministic trend and seasonality a priori could lead to model misspecification. A structural time series methodology was used to examine the role of stochastic trend and seasonality in a dairy supply response model using quarterly time series data. Four versions of a time-linked model of dairy supply response were compared. A dairy supply model with stochastic seasonality and deterministic trend performed the best, as evidenced by diagnostic tests, goodness-of-fit measures, and forecasting accuracy. Our analysis suggested against the classic approach of incorporating the deterministic seasonality component in dairy supply models.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1080/13504850600689907

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