The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

Kajal Lahiri and J. George Wang

Applied Economics Letters, 2007, vol. 14, issue 1, 11-14

Abstract: The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (1984) and the skill score decomposition of Murphy (1988).

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425386

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