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Point and interval nowcasts of the Euro area IPI

Laurent Ferrara

Applied Economics Letters, 2007, vol. 14, issue 2, 115-120

Abstract: Opinion surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. The aim of this article is to propose a procedure to nowcast in real-time the fluctuations of the industrial production indices (IPI) for the aggregated euro area, by incorporating the information contained in the industrial opinion surveys. We present a pooling procedure, each nowcasted value stemming from a calibration model. The confidence intervals for IPI nowcasts are computed by bootstrap.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425998

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