Predicting the presidential election cycle in US stock prices: guinea pigs versus the pros

Manfred Gärtner ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2010, vol. 17, issue 18, 1759-1765

Abstract: The notion that US stock prices follow a pattern that is synchronized with presidential elections has been discussed among financial investors for a long time. Academic work exists that supports this idea, quantifies the pattern and has demonstrated its robustness over several decades and across parties in power. This article takes the existence and robustness of this presidential election cycle for granted and asks whether individuals exploit it when they predict stock prices. It considers and contrasts two types of such forecasts: Those made by professionals included in the Livingston survey and those made by students in a laboratory experiment. A key result is that neither group fares particularly well, though participants in the experiment outperformed the professionals.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1080/13504850903299602

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