Effects of parliamentary elections on primary budget deficits in OECD countries - robustness of the results with regard to alternative econometric estimators

Tobias Hagen

Applied Economics Letters, 2010, vol. 17, issue 2, 135-139

Abstract: Using an unbalanced panel of OECD countries for the period 1989 to 2005, the study tests the political budget cycle hypothesis empirically. The econometric approach is based on the equation proposed by Bohn (1998) for testing the sustainability of fiscal policy and various panel estimators. The empirical results strongly support the hypothesis of smaller primary surpluses (only) in election years. Brender and Drazen's (2005) result - an election effect exists only in new democracies - cannot be verified.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1080/13504850701720015

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