On the probability of winning a lottery with a random number of competitors

Seamus Hogan and Laura Meriluoto

Applied Economics Letters, 2011, vol. 18, issue 18, 1765-1768

Abstract: This article is concerned with models in which an agent faces a lottery with j other agents for a prize, so that the probability of winning the prize is 1/( j + 1), and where j is stochastic. After describing four different situations where such a lottery is present, we construct the expected value of the probability of winning such a lottery and prove a theorem that presents the expected value in a simpler form. We then give an example of the theorem being applied to gain new insights into auction theory.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.562158

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