Are central bank projections rational?

Jan-Christoph Rülke

Applied Economics Letters, 2012, vol. 19, issue 13, 1257-1263

Abstract: Central bank projections have gained considerable attention for monetary policy modelling. However, less is known about the nature of central bank projections. This letter explores the unbiasedness and rationality of more than 2000 growth and inflation projections published by 15 major central banks. The results indicate that central bank projections are rational and unbiased in most cases. Interestingly, inflation projections are more biased than growth projections.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.619482

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