Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL

Sean Wever and David Aadland ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2012, vol. 19, issue 1, 93-97

Abstract: Previous research has failed to draw any clear conclusions about the efficiency of the billion-dollar gambling industry for National Football League (NFL) games. We build on previous research and expose a new market inefficiency, which is consistent with the well-documented notion of herd behaviour in behavioural finance. A differential strategy of betting on home and visitor underdogs with large closing lines can produce statistically significant positive returns.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.568384

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