Are project appraisers chiromancers?

Marco Percoco

Applied Economics Letters, 2012, vol. 19, issue 3, 237-241

Abstract: The accuracy of ex ante project appraisal has been subject to scrutiny by scholars in recent years. It has often been claimed that the inaccuracy of project evaluation leads to a waste of public spending. In this article I acknowledge that the appraisal of a project consists in long-run predictions of several variables, so that the accuracy of ex ante evaluations should be assessed on the basis of forecasting rationality. I test for the rationality of a sample of World Bank project appraisals and find no significant discrepancy between ex ante and realized rates of return.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.572837

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