A predictive model of the freight rate of the international market in Capesize dry bulk carriers

Ching-Chih Chang, Chin-Yuan Hsieh and Yung-Chih Lin

Applied Economics Letters, 2012, vol. 19, issue 4, 313-317

Abstract: This study examines the considerable fluctuations of the world's dry bulk shipping market from November 1995 to September 2008. The major objective is to provide a forecasting model for the freight rate in relation to the second-hand ship price. The results indicate an acceptable level of prediction according to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with a value no more than 20%. It is anticipated that this research will prove germane to major stakeholders, including owners, charters, investors and bankers, by forecasting the freight rate and thereby expediting the decision-making process.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.576998

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