Are production managers' forecasts useful? Joint evaluation and robustness

Yoichi Tsuchiya

Applied Economics Letters, 2013, vol. 20, issue 15, 1403-1406

Abstract: We jointly evaluate the two directional changes (increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration) in monthly manufacturing production activity predicted by production managers using a new market-timing test. Besides determining that the forecasts are useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in monthly production activity, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Moreover, we find that the results are broadly robust to two data vintages and outlying observations.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.815301

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