On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: the Spanish PwC Survey

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Mar�a del Carmen Ramos-Herrera
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Maria del Carmen Ramos Herrera ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2013, vol. 20, issue 2, 107-110

Abstract: We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectation formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the short run and destabilizing expectations in the long run.

Date: 2013
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Working Paper: On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey (2014)
Working Paper: On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey (2012)
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.684775

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