On the internal consistency of the term structure of forecasts of housing starts

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann

Applied Economics Letters, 2013, vol. 20, issue 9, 847-851

Abstract: We use the term structure of forecasts of housing starts to test for rationality of forecasts. Our test is based on the idea that short-term and long-term forecasts should be internally consistent. We test the internal consistency of forecasts using data for Australia, Canada, Japan and the United States. Using a simple model of forecast formation, we find that forecasts are not internally consistent, leading to a rejection of forecast rationality.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.752568

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