Preliminary evidence on relationships between agricultural commodities futures prices, spot prices and oil prices using reverse regressions

Phillip A. Cartwright and Natalija Riabko

Applied Economics Letters, 2015, vol. 22, issue 10, 777-782

Abstract: The focus of this research was on hypothesized relationships between agricultural commodities futures prices, respective spot prices and oil prices. The research uses reverse regressions to test for empirical relationships between variables. This article analyses the possible relationships taking into account intertemporal effects, temporal aggregation (daily and weekly), alternative time series model specifications (GARCH, E-GARCH) and assumptions on the distribution of residuals. Preliminary evidence indicates the significance of the hypothesized relationships for some cases. As evidence is by no means conclusive, directions for ongoing research are indicated.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.978066

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