Detecting jumps and regime switches in international stock markets returns

Julien Chevallier and Stéphane Goutte

Applied Economics Letters, 2015, vol. 22, issue 13, 1011-1019

Abstract: This article explores seven international stock markets (DJIA, Euro STOXX 600, Russell 2000, Nikkei, NASDAQ, FTSE and Global Dow) in the quest for jumps and regime switches. The methodological framework borrows from the Markov-switching approach and the stochastic modelling literature based on L�vy processes. The econometric procedure is detailed in a two-step fashion. The data set covers the period from June 2004 to July 2014. The main results uncover changing market dynamics according to economic and/or financial phenomena (e.g., economic crises/growth, news events) with the occurrence of several episodes characterized by a high jump intensity. We advocate the use of such a jump-robust model modulated by a Markov chain to further study the dependence structure of financial time series.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.995356

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