The use of payment systems data as early indicators of economic activity

Carlos Conesa, Leonardo Gambacorta, Sergio Gorjon and Marco Lombardi

Applied Economics Letters, 2015, vol. 22, issue 8, 646-650

Abstract: Payment system data are available with virtually no time lag and could therefore help in tracking the evolution of GDP in real time. Using data from the Spanish national system for retail payments, we compare the performance of GDP nowcasts against that of alternative indicators. The main result is that payment system data can make a significant contribution to nowcasting GDP and they can also improve the performance of simple models that are currently based only on purchasing managers indices (PMIs).

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.964826

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