Public reaction to stock market volatility: evidence from the ATUS

Patrick Payne, Christopher Browning and Charlene Kalenkoski

Applied Economics Letters, 2016, vol. 23, issue 17, 1197-1200

Abstract: How does the public react to changes in the stock market? We know from the existing body of research that sentiment can predict future stock-market movements. However, do market movements affect sentiment? This article addresses these questions by testing whether market movements precede changes in the emotional well-being of the general public. Using Granger causality analysis, we compare how market movements affect public well-being during periods of increased (2010) and decreased (2012) volatility. The results show that 30-day-lagged returns are associated positively and significantly with the public’s emotional well-being, and that this effect is stronger during periods of increased volatility. The results also show that this effect may persist for up to 120 days.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1142651

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