When did inflation expectations in the Euro area de-anchor?

Andrea Fracasso and Rocco Probo

Applied Economics Letters, 2017, vol. 24, issue 20, 1481-1485

Abstract: Long-term inflation expectations in the Euro area (EA) remained well anchored during the global financial crisis. Less is known about the following period. By investigating whether inflation expectations have become sensitive to the arrival of economic news, this article empirically analyzes the behavior of inflation expectations in the EA during the most recent period. It finds evidence that the de-anchoring of expectations started in December 2011 and never reversed. This is in line with the more aggressive stance held by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the following months as well as with the pattern of ECB Professional Forecasters’ expectations.

Date: 2017
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Working Paper: When did inflation expectations in the euro area de-anchor? (2016)
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1287846

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