Candidate quality and US Senate elections

Christopher Duquette, Franklin Mixon and Richard Cebula ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2017, vol. 24, issue 3, 193-197

Abstract: We find that candidate quality is a key determinant of US Senate election outcomes. We model the results for the last 10 US Senate election cycles, from 2012 back to 1994, for a total of 345 election contests. For the contests where an incumbent seeks re-election, a quality challenger can significantly diminish the advantage that usually attaches to incumbency. For the open-seat contests, which tend to be more competitive, candidate quality can swing a close election. Governors who seek election to the US Senate receive the largest boost, as indicated by our candidate-quality variables vector. Wave effects and presidential coattail effects are also shown to be contributing factors in certain cases.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1176107

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