Liquidity and investor confidence in the turn-of-the-month regularity

John E. Burnett

Applied Economics Letters, 2017, vol. 24, issue 4, 273-278

Abstract: Ogden (1990) offers a compelling explanation for the ubiquitous turn-of-the-month (TOM) seasonality. He hypothesizes and shows that the clustering of payment dates at the end of the month results in a stock return regularity that is related to increased liquidity and monetary policy. This article introduces investor behaviour into Ogden’s TOM liquidity hypothesis where higher TOM returns depend not only on the availability of increased liquidity but also on investors’ willingness to invest new funds. The empirical evidence is consistent with the argument. When confidence is high, investors’ willingness to invest the increased liquidity results in a TOM regularity. But when confidence is low, a TOM regularity is absent as investors park the increased liquidity. This additional measure of investor confidence provides a more complete explanation of Ogden’s liquidity hypothesis.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1184218

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