Conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand via QRNN model

Shubo Cao, Qifa Xu, Cuixia Jiang and Yaoyao He

Applied Economics Letters, 2018, vol. 25, issue 12, 867-875

Abstract: We propose a new method for conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand through quantile regression neural network (QRNN). This method has at least two advantages. First, it is flexible to explore the true nonlinearity in the energy demand system via neural network structure. Second, it is able to describe the whole conditional distribution of energy demand via quantile regression. In the empirical study on China’s energy demand, QRNN outperforms several classical methods in terms of forecast accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample. Considering China’s economic and social environment, we set a scenario for predictors and forecast the conditional density of China’s energy demand from 2015 to 2020. The empirical results show that the conditional density curve moves to right and its dispersion increases over time, which indicates that the energy demand in China will keep growing with an average annual rate of 9.672% and its uncertainty is enlarged with 42.210%.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1374532

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