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Nonlinear trend stationarity in global and hemispheric temperatures

Kon S. Lai and Mann Yoon

Applied Economics Letters, 2018, vol. 25, issue 1, 15-18

Abstract: This study investigates the issue of whether our Earth’s surface temperature exhibits a stochastic trend. Using state-of-the-art econometrics, we analyse the latest available temperature anomaly data. Our results indicate that both global and hemispheric temperatures may appear to have a stochastic trend when in fact they are stationary around a nonlinear deterministic trend and structural breaks are responsible. Furthermore, the nonlinearity found in the temperature trend is more complex than what has been reported in previous studies.

Date: 2018
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