Optimal forecast evaluation: fertilizer prices

Seon-Woong Kim and B Brorsen

Applied Economics Letters, 2018, vol. 25, issue 4, 229-233

Abstract: High fertilizer price volatility makes production planning and inventory management difficult, so accurate fertilizer price forecasts would be beneficial. This article evaluates commercial forecasts for urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices based on forecast accuracy and optimal forecast properties. Most forecasts pass the tests, but forecasts for the US New Orleans urea and the US Gulf DAP markets, in particular, do not and thus show potential to be improved.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1310993

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