Testing for bias in forecasts for independent binary outcomes

Philip Hans Franses

Applied Economics Letters, 2021, vol. 28, issue 15, 1336-1338

Abstract: This letter deals with a test on forecast bias in predicting independent binary outcomes, where the outcomes are either 1 or 0, and the predictions are probabilities. The test concerns two parameter restrictions in a simple logit model. Size-corrected power experiments show remarkable power.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1838429

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