Uncertainty and business cycle synchronization in Europe

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

Applied Economics Letters, 2022, vol. 29, issue 11, 1047-1053

Abstract: We assess empirically the role that uncertainty plays as a determinant of business cycle synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of business cycle synchronization and Bayesian model averaging methods, we find that increase in uncertainty tends to robustly predict desynchronization, in particular for countries whose business cycles are not in line with those of the rest of the monetary union.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1939854

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