Monetary policy shocks identified using the entire yield curve: an alternative approach

Woon Wook Jang

Applied Economics Letters, 2022, vol. 29, issue 21, 2020-2031

Abstract: Conventional monetary policy (MP) shocks are typically identified as unexpected changes in the short end of the yield curve. During the zero lower-bound period, central banks attempt to provide stimulus by operating on the long end of the yield curve with new tools, such as forward guidance and large-scale asset purchase. This implies that the identification of MP shocks should be done throughout the entire yield curve. This study proposes an alternative approach to analysing the effects of MP shocks, using factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) of monthly data. We therefore used information from large datasets and made changes over the entire yield curve as shocks to the VAR, which were identified using external high-frequency instruments. Furthermore, empirical analyses using economic and financial variables showed that contractionary yield curve changes decrease the inflation rate and increase risk aversion and uncertainty, which is consistent with conventional wisdom.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1967861

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