Returns to higher education in China – evidence from the 1999 higher education expansion using a fuzzy regression discontinuity

Fengyan Dai, Fang Cai and Yu Zhu

Applied Economics Letters, 2022, vol. 29, issue 6, 489-494

Abstract: China experienced a 47% expansion in higher education enrolment between 1998 and 1999 and a sixfold expansion in the decade to 2008. Using a fuzzy discontinuity in the months of births, we show that the 1999 expansion increased education by roughly 1 year around the cut-off point. Importantly, each additional year of university education induced by the expansion increases monthly earnings by 24%, whereas the corresponding OLS estimate is only 8%. Our findings are insensitive to alternative window widths, functional forms or the exclusion of the self-employed.

Date: 2022
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Working Paper: Returns to Higher Education in China: Evidence from the 1999 Higher Education Expansion Using Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity (2018)
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1871465

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