High stakes, experts, and recency bias: evidence from a sports gambling contest

Neil Metz and Chintamani Jog

Applied Economics Letters, 2023, vol. 30, issue 18, 2525-2529

Abstract: Sports betting markets provide a unique opportunity to test market efficiency and, in this case, study the presence of recency bias and experts in forecasting sports outcomes. This paper uses a panel data set of individual NFL sports gamblers in a season-long contest known as the SuperContest. The contest is used to track the picks of individual gamblers against the spread on games throughout the 2013–18 NFL regular seasons. We find that overall, the SuperContest entrants are no better at picking winners than a coin flip and exhibit a recency bias. However, more skilled contestants are less susceptible to the recency bias and their skill advantage forecasting outcomes may be their avoidance of a recency bias trap.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2099517

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