Geopolitical risk shocks and the Brazilian economy

Fernando Barros Jr, Fábio Gomes and Gian Soave

Applied Economics Letters, 2023, vol. 30, issue 19, 2803-2807

Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of international geopolitical risk shocks (GPR) on the Brazilian economy. The dynamic relation between Brazil and GPR is modelled using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model that accounts for large economic shocks with heavy tails and stochastic volatility. The study analyses quarterly data from Brazil, as well as the indices that account for GPR related to the US, Russia, and a global GPR index. The results indicate that real economic activity reacts more intensely to Russian risk than to global or US risk, whereas the responses of prices and financial indicators appear more sensitive to global risk.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2107983

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