Set-level strategic and psychological momentum in best-of-five matches in professional tennis

Craig Depken, John M. Gandar and Dmitry A. Shapiro

Applied Economics Letters, 2023, vol. 30, issue 6, 735-739

Abstract: We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of set-level strategic and psychological momentums in a sample of 8,193 ATP best-of-five-set tennis matches where players have asymmetric abilities. Theoretical predictions match observed Set 1 outcomes, the only set with no set-level psychological momentum, but do not match any other sets. We find evidence of psychological reversal: in every set following a non-tie net score, the winner of the previous set underperforms compared to theoretical predictions.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.2016582

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