Does forward guidance of the ECB matter for the accuracy of private sector inflation forecasts?

David Burden, Ralf Fendel and Lilli Zimmermann

Applied Economics Letters, 2023, vol. 30, issue 9, 1213-1217

Abstract: Data from the Consensus Economics Forecast Poll is used to analyse whether Forward Guidance of the ECB affected the accuracy of private sector inflation forecasts. Using more than 4,000 data points our results indicate an improvement of private sector inflation forecasts in terms of accuracy after the change in ECB communication towards Forward Guidance.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2041172

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