On the efficiency of growth forecasts for Germany: an application of forward and backward predictor variable selection

Christian Pierdzioch

Applied Economics Letters, 2024, vol. 31, issue 18, 1804-1807

Abstract: I use a forward and backward predictor selection to study the efficiency of growth forecasts for Germany published by three German economic research institutes during the sample period 1970–2018. The two predictor selection techniques make it straightforward to study forecast efficiency even when the number of predictor variables that a researcher uses to proxy the information set of a forecaster is large. Based on my empirical results, I reject forecast efficiency in the majority of cases.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2023.2207811

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