Perceived economic effects of the war in Ukraine: survey-based evidence from Italian firms

Tiziano Ropele and Alex Tagliabracci

Applied Economics Letters, 2024, vol. 31, issue 4, 275-280

Abstract: Using data from an Italian business survey and a quasi-experimental analysis, we document the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on firms’ expectations. The conflict led firms to revise upward their inflation expectations and their own expected prices changes and made them more pessimistic about the general macroeconomic outlook and their business conditions. These effects did not materialize immediately after the Russian invasion but built up in the second and third weeks thereafter.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2131710

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