Instability in trade flows as a cause of economic stagnation in Africa: an error-correction test

Muhammed Islam

Applied Economics Letters, 1996, vol. 3, issue 5, 359-364

Abstract: This paper identifies export instability as an additional cause of changes in GDP. Instability is measured by deviations of exports from their trend values. A multivariate error-correction model that incorporates export instability is tested on individual time series data (1967-1990) for twenty-one African countries. The results indicate reduction in export-earnings but not any significant decline in GDP growth due to instability. Half of these countries experienced export-to-growth causality, with a reverse causality in three-fourths of them. The results are sensitive to both the omission of variables and the test procedure used.

Date: 1996
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DOI: 10.1080/135048596356519

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