Yield spreads as predictors of recessions in a core European economic area

N. Funke

Applied Economics Letters, 1997, vol. 4, issue 11, 695-697

Abstract: The estimation of probabilities of recessions/weak economic activity based on probit analyses indicates that the development of the German yield spread as well as the development of a weighted average of European yield spreads have been useful predictors for periods of sluggish economic development in core Europe with a lead time of around three quarters.*

Date: 1997
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DOI: 10.1080/758530651

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