A composite leading indicator of Australian inflation

Imad Moosa

Applied Economics Letters, 1998, vol. 5, issue 11, 711-713

Abstract: This paper investigates the possibility of constructing a composite leading indicator of Australian inflation. Five variables are considered and found to have both short-run and long-run causal linkages with consumer prices. A composite leading indicator is constructed on the basis of the coefficients of the cointegrating vector and smoothed by calculating a four-quarter moving average. This indicator is shown to have led the annual inflation rate in six troughs and five peaks between 1972 and 1992.

Date: 1998
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:5:y:1998:i:11:p:711-713

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DOI: 10.1080/135048598354186

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