A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment

James Obben, Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht () and V. Wesley Thompson

Applied Economics Letters, 2002, vol. 9, issue 1, 43-46

Abstract: A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment is estimated using a random sample of completed unemployment spells in New Zealand over the period 1988-97. The regressions results are sensible, but the predictive power of the model seems to depend on the share of long-term unemployed in total unemployment. In particular, if one-third or less of annual observations are made up of long-term unemployment spells, the model is incapable of predicting any such spells, unless it is constrained to do so.

Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1080/13504850110046840

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