Weather biases in the NFL totals market

Richard Borghesi

Applied Financial Economics, 2008, vol. 18, issue 12, 947-953

Abstract: I examine outcome predictability in the National Football League totals betting market using data from the 1984 through 2004 seasons. Results suggest that while weather is an important determinant of scoring, the market does not accurately incorporate the effects of adverse conditions into totals bet prices. Specifically, I demonstrate that heat, wind and rain reduce point production, and provide evidence that bettors underestimate this effect. I also present a betting strategy that accounts for expected weather conditions and produces an out-of-sample win rate significantly above the 52.38% profitability threshold.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1080/09603100701335432

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