A formal methodology for aggregating multiple market views

Joseph Simonian

Applied Financial Economics, 2012, vol. 22, issue 14, 1175-1179

Abstract: We describe a formal aggregation procedure that allows investors to combine disparate market views, including the reasons that support them, to produce a single collective view. The methodology uses a many-valued logic to represent individual chains of reasoning and the sum absolute difference as a way of measuring disagreement between individuals. Group level views are derived by selecting the individual views that have the lowest sum absolute difference from the other views. In cases where more than one individual view possesses the minimum sum absolute difference, a variant of the game-theoretic solution concept known as the Shapley value is employed as a way to generate a compromise between the candidate views. In this way a single group-level market view can always be derived that is both formally consistent and a genuine balance between individual judgements.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2011.636018

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