A Theoretically Consistent Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models

Leo Krippner

Applied Mathematical Finance, 2006, vol. 13, issue 1, 39-59

Abstract: A popular class of yield curve models is based on the Nelson and Siegel approach of 'fitting' yield curve data with simple functions of maturity. However, such models cannot be consistent across time. This article addresses that deficiency by deriving an intertemporally consistent and arbitrage-free version of the Nelson and Siegel model. Adding this theoretical consistency expands the potential applications of the Nelson and Siegel approach to exercises involving a time-series context, such as forecasting the yield curve and pricing interest rate derivatives. As a practical example, the intertemporal consistency of the model is exploited to derive a theoretical framework for forecasting the yield curve. The empirical application of that framework to United States data results in out-of-sample forecasts that outperform the random walk over the sample period of almost 50 years, for forecast horizons ranging from six months to three years.

Keywords: Yield curve; term structure of interest rates; Nelson and Siegel model; Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504860500394367 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:39-59

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAMF20

DOI: 10.1080/13504860500394367

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Mathematical Finance is currently edited by Professor Ben Hambly and Christoph Reisinger

More articles in Applied Mathematical Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().