Dating the ‘world business cycle’

Anirvan Banerji (), Allan P. Layton and Lakshman Achuthan

Applied Economics, 2012, vol. 44, issue 16, 2051-2063

Abstract: By mid-2008 the world was witnessing the unfolding of a relatively rare macroeconomic phenomenon, namely, the onset of what one might call a synchronized international -- or ‘world’ -- recession. But what exactly is a ‘synchronized world recession’? This article proposes a practical definition of a ‘synchronized world recession’ and a putative set of historical post-WWII dates for a ‘world business cycle chronology’. Further, using a constructed ‘world coincident index of economic indicators’ and an associated ‘world leading index of economic indicators’, this article demonstrates that evidence was available from early in the second half of 2007 that the world was indeed sliding inexorably towards its fourth synchronized world recession since WWII (although, interestingly, already its second of the twenty-first century!).

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.558479

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