Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029

S. P. Thi颡ut, Thomas Barnay () and Bruno Ventelou

Applied Economics, 2013, vol. 45, issue 13, 1663-1672

Abstract: The healthy ageing assumptions may lead to substantial changes in paths of aggregate health care expenditure, notably catastrophic expenditure of people at the end of the life. But clear assessments of involved amounts are not available when we specifically consider ambulatory care (as drug expenditure) generally offered to chronically-ill people. We estimate the effects of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on French health expenditure until 2029 by applying a Markovian micro-simulation model from a nationally representative database. The originality of these simulations holds in using an aggregate indicator of morbidity--mortality, capturing vital risk and making it possible to adapt the quantification of life expectancies by taking into account the presence of severe chronic pathologies. We forecast future national drugs expenditure, under different epidemiological scenarios of chronic morbidity: trend scenario, healthy ageing scenario and medical progress scenario . For the population aged 25+, results predict an increase in reimbursable drug expenditure of between 1.1% and 1.8% (annual growth rate), attributable solely to the ageing population and changes in health status.

Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2011.633895 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029 (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:13:p:1663-1672

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.633895

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().